Posted by
Bruce Armstrong on Monday, June 11, 2007 10:55:50 PM
A new
LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows the GOP presidential nomination race is down to a two-man battle between former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson.
Only Giuliani and Thompson break the 20% barrier, with Giuliani at 27% and Thompson at 21%. Arizona Senator John McCain is a distant third at 12% and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney at 10%. The remainder of the crowded field is in single digits. (The error of margin for this portion of the poll is +/- 5%.)
This running order is maintained when voters were asked to pick only among the top four GOP candidates in this poll, with Giuliani at 32%, Thompson at 28%, McCain at 17%, and Romney at 12%.
My Analysis: Rudy has strong positives on terrorism and national security, particularly related to his his strong leadership and calming influence on and after 9/11. However, his negatives - particularly among social and religious conservatives - are his personal behavior (multiple divorces, adultery, short temper) and his liberal social views (abortion, gay marriage).
Fred Thompson has none of the negatives of Rudy Giuliani, despite his 1985 divorce, and all of the positives. He comes across as strong on national security, terrorism, fiscal responsibility, and solidly social conservative. Frankly, he also comes across as a much nicer, more trustworthy guy than Giuliani.
McCain is a goner - he's the chicken with its head cut off who doesn't have sense enough to fall over and die. Conservatives despise him with a passion for a multitude of reasons. His short temper and sharp tongue, particularly toward fellow Republicans who disagree with him, also turn voters off.
Romney comes across as a nice guy - good looks, solid family life, hardworking successful businessman. His drawbacks: questions about his Mormonism, his flip-flops on social issues (abortion, gay marriage), and the perception that he is an empty suit - an expensive, tailored empty suit, but an empty suit nonetheless.
Hunter and Tancredo are one-note johnnies on immigration. Paul is a 9/11 tinfoil whackjob. Brownback, Huckabee, Gilmore, and Thompson are all decent enough fellows, but no possibility of winning - or even getting into double digits.